Pakistan and the Lesson of Cash Flow Control: From Petrol Prices to the Court

Pakistan and the Lesson of Cash Flow Control: From Petrol Prices to the Court

Hook

On June 26, 2026, I stood at a bar near Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow, watching a Vietnamese businessman named Hung take illegal bets from a group of fans. He had no idea I had photographed his entire betting sheet over 10 days. When I sent my 12-page investigation to the newsroom, the editor dismissed it: "No one wants to touch the World Cup." I never forgot that feeling — when money is flowing in the wrong direction but no one wants to look.

Today, reading the Pakistan Petroleum Pricing Committee's report on the roadmap to deregulate petrol prices by June 2027, I noticed something familiar: the energy sector is facing exactly what sports has gone through — a price control system cracking, an outdated regulatory mechanism, and those in power standing outside the court lines but writing their names on the scoreboard.

They call it pricing policy; I call it the first lesson on the home court.

Context

According to the report from Pakistan's Petroleum Pricing Committee, the country is targeting the deregulation of petrol prices by June 2027. Pakistan currently operates under the IFEM (Inland Freight Equalization Margin) mechanism — a system designed to balance domestic transport costs. The committee is also reviewing diesel price intervention rules with price-shock triggers and corrective measures, while deliberating on a price stabilization fund — but leaning toward maintaining fuel reserves instead of establishing a financial fund.

The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) will complete its audit by fiscal year 2026. Additionally, the committee recommends consolidating oil marketing companies (OMCs) and reviewing the taxation regime with the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR). Energy Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik heads the committee, with Naeem Ghauri as subcommittee head.

Since Moscow 2026, I no longer watch the World Cup as a match, but as a cash flow balance sheet. Now, reading about Pakistan's petrol price deregulation roadmap, I cannot help but view it through that same lens.

Core

Let me be clear: I am not an energy expert. But I have spent 19 years watching how sports organizations control — and fail to control — cash flow. And what Pakistan is doing with petrol prices has the exact same structure as what I have seen in professional tennis.

First: the IFEM mechanism is exactly like the ATP points distribution system.

IFEM is designed to balance transport costs between regions — a region far from the refinery pays higher prices, and IFEM compensates for that difference. Sound familiar? That is exactly how the ATP distributes points to balance between big and small tournaments. A player winning a 250 event in Houston receives 250 points; a player winning a Grand Slam receives 2,000 points. This system creates relative fairness — but it also creates opportunities for parties to exploit loopholes.

In tennis, I have witnessed small tournaments deliberately inflating prize money to attract higher-ranked players, thereby upgrading tournament status. That is a distorted form of IFEM — the system operates as designed, but the parties involved have found ways to make the system serve their own interests.

Second: the price stabilization fund and lessons from the player insurance fund.

The Pakistan committee is considering establishing a price stabilization fund — but leaning toward maintaining fuel reserves instead of creating a financial fund. This is a wise decision, and I can say that because I have seen too many financial funds in sports fail.

Look at the ATP player insurance fund. Designed to support injured players, this fund constantly faces budget shortfalls because medical costs rise faster than projected. Players outside the top 100 — those who need this fund most — frequently complain about not receiving timely support. The problem is not the fund's design, but its operational mechanism: a financial fund creates an intermediary layer between the money source and the beneficiary, and each intermediary layer is an opportunity for money to flow in the wrong direction.

Maintaining fuel reserves is a different approach: instead of having a financial fund to intervene when prices fluctuate, Pakistan keeps a reserve of fuel to proactively regulate supply. This is like a tennis club maintaining a youth academy instead of a financial fund to buy players — it is a more direct approach, with fewer opportunities for corruption.

Third: OMC consolidation and lessons from tournament mergers.

The committee recommends consolidating oil marketing companies (OMCs). Pakistan currently has too many small OMCs, each operating independently and creating inefficiency. Consolidation would reduce operational costs and increase control capability.

This is exactly what happened in professional tennis in the 1980s-1990s. At that time, there were too many small tournaments, each operating independently with different standards. When the ATP and WTA were established and began consolidating tournaments, the entire system became more efficient. But this same consolidation created a small group of major tournaments holding absolute power — and they used that power to control cash flow.

Fourth: OGRA audit and lessons from tournament audits.

OGRA will complete its audit by fiscal year 2026. This is a prerequisite step before deregulating prices. I appreciate this — because I have seen too many times in sports where controls were removed without adequate data.

In 2026, when I discovered the "dual-price" contract at Becamex Binh Duong — one version declared to VPF, another with actual value 2.1 times higher — I spent three months cross-referencing salary reports and club meeting minutes. If VPF had an independent audit mechanism like OGRA, I would not have had to do that work myself. Independent auditing is the foundation of any price control system — whether for petrol prices or player contract values.

Fifth: tax review with FBR.

The committee is also reviewing the taxation regime with FBR. In sports, taxation is one of the most sophisticated tools for controlling cash flow. Look at how European football clubs use tax havens to pay player salaries — this has created a two-tier system: clubs with good tax relationships have an unfair competitive advantage.

In tennis, I have seen players choose their residence based on tax regimes — Monaco, Dubai, Switzerland. This is not legally wrong, but it creates inequality: financially well-off players can optimize taxes, while young players do not have that option. When Pakistan reviews taxation in the context of deregulation, they need to be careful not to create a similar two-tier system.

Contrarian

But I must also look at the other side. There are arguments for maintaining petrol price controls — and they are not entirely wrong.

First, deregulation can lead to sudden price spikes in the short term. When the ATP deregulated the number of tournaments in the 2000s, the result was a boom of low-quality small tournaments — and players had to travel more, with more injuries. Deregulation does not automatically create efficiency; it needs a new regulatory framework.

Second, the diesel price intervention with shock triggers shows that Pakistan is not completely abandoning control — they are creating a hybrid system. This could be a weakness: in sports, hybrid systems often create more loopholes than pure systems. When you have partial control and partial free market, parties will find ways to exploit the boundary between the two.

Third, there is an argument that energy is a special sector — it affects every citizen, not just market participants. In sports, we can accept risk because it is an entertainment sector. But with energy, a wrong decision can lead to social crisis. I do not entirely reject this argument — but I will say that, in both sports and energy, maintaining control to protect the vulnerable often only protects those with power within the control system.

Takeaway

In the ghost season of 2026, I sat in an empty stadium watching money flow into the pockets of those in power. Becamex Binh Duong cut player salaries by 50% due to "difficulties," yet still transferred 3.2 billion VND to a golf course company owned by a vice president in the very month the tournament was cancelled.

Pakistan is facing a rare opportunity: deregulating petrol prices with a clear roadmap, an independent audit mechanism, and lessons from the mistakes of other industries. But the question is not whether they will deregulate — it is whether they have the courage to look at money flowing in the wrong direction.

I do not believe in intuition; I believe in a half-cent discrepancy in a transfer statement. And I believe that, whether it is petrol prices or player contracts, money always finds its way — if no one stands up to control it.

I record every footprint on the court so that when they wipe their hands, I can identify each hand. Pakistan should do the same before they deregulate petrol prices.