Kim Sang Sik and the challenge of escaping his own shadow at the FIFA ASEAN Cup 2026

Look at the schedule. From September 24 to October 5, 2026, in Indonesia, the Vietnam national team will step into a tournament where the championship trophy is not the only thing of value. I have followed Southeast Asian football for 37 years, and I have never seen a coach face a paradox as large as the one Kim Sang Sik faces right now: he must defend a throne he himself built, while knowing that the only thing that can save him in the future is dismantling that very throne.

The context of this bet is clear. Vietnam are the reigning ASEAN Cup 2026 champions. They have conquered the region, and now, ahead of them lies a tournament called the FIFA ASEAN Cup – held for the first time under the direct auspices of world football's governing body. This is not simply a regional competition under a new name. This is a stage built to measure whether Southeast Asian football – and especially Vietnam – is ready to step out of its comfort zone.

I have witnessed too many teams win regionally and then die on the continental stage. But what makes me pause here is not the story of a football nation's rise and fall. It is how Kim Sang Sik – a South Korean coach who brought Vietnam a Southeast Asian title – is using this tournament as a tactical laboratory, a dress rehearsal ahead of the 2027 Asian Cup.

The truth few people say out loud is this: over the past two years, as Vietnam entered most matches as favorites, their strengths and weaknesses have been masked by the results themselves. When you win, people don't ask why. When you are the strongest team in the region, people don't scrutinize how you defend on the counter-attack. But Kim Sang Sik sees it. He knows that victories over Southeast Asian opponents cannot be the measuring stick for facing Japan, South Korea, Iran, or Australia at the Asian Cup.

Look at how he talks about this tournament. He doesn't talk about defending the crown. He talks about "reassessing the team's strength, from the quality and depth of the squad to how effectively the system operates." He talks about "experimenting and carefully assessing different options to give Vietnam more solutions when facing stronger opposition." This is not the language of a coach thinking about a trophy. This is the language of a man preparing for a much bigger war.

I once staked my reputation on an unknown club named Quang Nam and won. I once declared Germany would be eliminated in the group stage of the 2026 World Cup and won. But I have never seen a coach dare to stake his entire career on a regional tournament by turning it into an experiment – while the whole nation expects them to reach the final. That is Kim Sang Sik's gamble.

The problem is this: the goal of reaching the final (set by fans and media) and the goal of experimentation (which Kim is pursuing) can directly conflict. If he rotates the squad, tests new formations, gives opportunities to young players – and Vietnam are eliminated early – the wave of criticism will not only target the results, but also his very methodology. People will say: "He ruined a tournament to run experiments." And then, all the evaluative value he gained from the tournament will be discarded.

But I understand why he is doing this. I have followed enough Asian Cups and World Cups to know that the gap between regional and continental level is not a straight line, but a cliff. Vietnam can beat Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia – but when facing a high-pressing team like Japan, or a deadly counter-attacking side like Iran, their system can shatter within the first 20 minutes.

What Kim Sang Sik is trying to do is find "solutions" before the cliff appears. He doesn't want to arrive at the 2027 Asian Cup and discover for the first time that his squad lacks depth, or that his system only works when opponents play slow and deep. The FIFA ASEAN Cup 2026, with its dense 12-day schedule, is the perfect environment to test that.

Look at the geopolitical football context of this tournament. Indonesia are the hosts. Indonesia are developing rapidly with a bold naturalization policy and heavily invested infrastructure. They will play at home, in front of tens of thousands of passionate fans, and they will treat the match against Vietnam – the reigning champions – as an early final. This is the perfect psychological test Kim needs before the Asian Cup.

I have watched Indonesia play many times. They are no longer the timid team of the 2010s. They have speed, they have power, and now they have the confidence of a host nation. If Vietnam can overcome Indonesia – whether in the group stage or the knockout round – in such a hostile atmosphere, that would be a stronger signal than any victory over Laos or Cambodia.

But I must also be direct: there is a trap that Kim Sang Sik may be setting for himself. That is the trap of endless experimentation. When you constantly change the lineup, constantly test options, you can create instability in the dressing room. Players need stability to perform at their best. If Kim rotates too much, he may lose the cohesion he himself built during the ASEAN Cup-winning campaign.

I have seen too many teams fail because their coach was too clever, too strategic, to the point of forgetting that football is simply about winning the next match. Kim Sang Sik needs to balance two goals: experimentation and results. And I believe he knows this. I believe he will use the group stage for experimentation, and the knockout stage for results. That is the smartest way.

But the biggest question I pose here is not what Kim will do. It is whether Vietnamese fans have the patience to accept a tournament where their team doesn't necessarily have to win it all. I have lived in Vietnam long enough to know that football here is not just a sport. It is a religion. And when you are the reigning champion, people don't want to hear about "process" or "development." They want to see the trophy.

That is why I call this Kim Sang Sik's biggest gamble. Not because he might lose. But because he might win – in a way that no one understands.

Look at the bigger picture. The 2027 Asian Cup is the most immediate major objective for Vietnam. That is where Kim will truly be judged. If he arrives at the Asian Cup with a tested squad, with tactical solutions that have been tried in a real competitive environment, then even if Vietnam are eliminated in the quarter-finals, he can say he did the right thing. But if he arrives at the Asian Cup with an untested squad, with unfilled gaps, then everything will collapse.

I witnessed Germany's collapse at the 2026 World Cup. They arrived in Russia as defending champions, with excessive confidence, and they were punished by South Korea. They didn't lose because of a lack of talent. They lost because they believed their system was invincible. Kim Sang Sik is trying to avoid that for Vietnam. He is trying to find the weaknesses before they are exposed on the biggest stage.

And that is why I believe the FIFA ASEAN Cup 2026 will be one of the most important tournaments in Vietnamese football history – not because of the trophy, but because of what it reveals about the future.

Collapse is not the end point. It is the test that separates the professionals from the pretenders. And Kim Sang Sik, to me, is a true professional. He is doing what few coaches dare to do: using a tournament to find the truth about his team, rather than using it to polish the exterior gloss.

Three years from now, people may call him lucky. But I will call him the man who saw the darkness before it arrived. And at 53, after 37 years of watching football, I know that the only thing of value in this game is not the trophy. It is the ability to see ahead of what the majority refuses to see.

Look at Indonesia. Look at the 12-day schedule. Look at the pressure of the crown. And then look at how Kim Sang Sik talks about "solutions" instead of "titles." I have seen enough to know: this man is looking further ahead than all of us. And the only question that remains is: do we have the patience to follow him to where he is heading?